Impact of New Technology

by adam on August 9, 2011

People seem to routinely overestimate the impact of new technologies in the short-run and under estimate the long-run impact. As a rule of thumb, a new technologies impact will be overestimated for 3-7 years looking forward, and underestimated 7-10 years out

There are a number of reasons for this including the Technology Adoption Life-Cycle and Moore’s Law.


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