Adam Breckler » Technology http://www.adambreckler.com internet professional Tue, 31 Jan 2012 23:15:27 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 en hourly 1 Impact of New Technology http://www.adambreckler.com/impact-of-new-technology http://www.adambreckler.com/impact-of-new-technology#comments Tue, 09 Aug 2011 15:06:29 +0000 adam http://www.adambreckler.com/?p=864 People seem to routinely overestimate the impact of new technologies in the short-run and under estimate the long-run impact. As a rule of thumb, a new technologies impact will be overestimated for 3-7 years looking forward, and underestimated 7-10 years out

There are a number of reasons for this including the Technology Adoption Life-Cycle and Moore’s Law.

technology

]]> http://www.adambreckler.com/impact-of-new-technology/feed 0 100 Years of Moore’s Law http://www.adambreckler.com/100-years-of-moores-law http://www.adambreckler.com/100-years-of-moores-law#comments Wed, 27 Jan 2010 06:24:10 +0000 adam http://www.adambreckler.com/?p=697 3656849977_48f6a16eb4_o_thumb

Via: Paul Kedrosky Via Steve Jurvetson Via Ray Kurzweil

]]> http://www.adambreckler.com/100-years-of-moores-law/feed 0 Is Google re-inventing the model of the Corporation? http://www.adambreckler.com/is-google-re-inventing-the-model-of-the-corporation http://www.adambreckler.com/is-google-re-inventing-the-model-of-the-corporation#comments Wed, 06 Jan 2010 05:03:11 +0000 adam http://www.adambreckler.com/?p=679 The Old Paradigm: Rely on quasi-monopoly and second-rate legacy products to squeeze users starved of choice for every last penny (*cough* Microsoft, *cough* *cough*).

microsuck

The New Paradigm: Put end-users first and profits will follow. (Google).

google-halo

Much can be said about the corporate cultures (particularly Google’s) which have in part enabled this brand of user-centric thinking, but that is a topic for another discussion.

Time and time again Google has put the best interests of their users AHEAD of their own share-holders and short-term bottom line.  This isn’t to say that they are profit agnostic in the slightest, they happen to make very healthy profits, rather they believe that doing right by their customers will earn them more loyalty (read: money) in the long run.

To phrase it another way: Google is not successful in-spite of putting users interests first, to the contrary, they are successful BECAUSE they put users’ interests first.

Ok, so what are some examples of this seemingly “altruistic” behavior?

Example 1 (2007): Google get’s serious about ad quality by implementing a “quality score” for all of it’s search ads.

Example 2 (2010):  Google’s recent entrance into the mobile phone market, providing more openness and choice in a stagnant and typically user-unfriendly industry.

What remains to be seen is how long this type of user-centric behavior can last.  The danger is that with time, pressure to increase profit will lead to cost-cutting measures that affect their products, but in the mean-time it seems like Google and it’s management are still eating the “don’t be evil” dogfood.

]]> http://www.adambreckler.com/is-google-re-inventing-the-model-of-the-corporation/feed 0 Technology Consumption (Scale > Price) http://www.adambreckler.com/technology-consumption-scale-price http://www.adambreckler.com/technology-consumption-scale-price#comments Thu, 10 Sep 2009 21:51:58 +0000 adam http://www.adambreckler.com/?p=541

I’ve been wondering for awhile, how come in the face of deflationary pressures (decrease in price/performance ratio), the amount of overall $ consumed of technology continues to rise. As it turns out the answer is actually quite obvious, or so it is made to seem by the omniscient http://www.adambreckler.com/?p=530 It’s hard not to be wildly optimistic about what the future holds when Ray Kurzweil lays it out it so matter-of-factly.

Our intuition is linear, so many scientists think in linear terms and expect that the slow pace of the past will characterize the future. But the reality of progress in information technology is exponential, not linear. What used to take up a building now fits in my pocket, and what now fits in my pocket will fit inside a blood cell in 25 years.

Read More: http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/guest/23802/


exponential_growth_520

]]> http://www.adambreckler.com/the-impact-of-exponential-growth/feed 0 The Hype Cycle http://www.adambreckler.com/the-hype-cycle http://www.adambreckler.com/the-hype-cycle#comments Sun, 07 Jun 2009 21:04:11 +0000 adam http://www.adambreckler.com/?p=359 A hype cycle is a graphic representation of the maturity, adoption and business application of specific technologies. The term was coined by Gartner, an analyst/research house, based in the United States, that provides opinions, advice and data on the global information technology industry.

Notice that the adjusted expectations during the plateau never quite live up to the initial inflated expectations of the peak.

Source:Wikipedia

  1. “Technology Trigger” — The first phase of a hype cycle is the “technology trigger” or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
  2. “Peak of Inflated Expectations” — In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
  3. “Trough of Disillusionment” — Technologies enter the “trough of disillusionment” because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
  4. “Slope of Enlightenment” — Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the “slope of enlightenment” and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
  5. “Plateau of Productivity” — A technology reaches the “plateau of productivity” as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

The initial hype behind clean tech hit it’s peak early last year and seems to be in the middle of a rebound or the “slope of enlightenment”. The following chart tracks the price of the clean tech etf PZD.

The mother of all hype cycles below, as evidenced by the peak and trough of the NASDAQ composite from the last 10 years. According to this chart, we have been in the “Plateau of Productivity for some six years now.

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